Playing the lottery is already a long shot - but when others pick the same numbers as you, your odds of a full payout shrink even more. Here's how duplicate entries happen, why they matter, and how you can protect your potential winnings.
The Dream - and the Disappointment
Imagine it. You check your lottery ticket and realize you have matched all the winning numbers. You are an instant millionnaire - or so you think. But then the news breaks - four people picked the exact same combinations. Suddenly, your life-changing jackpot is one-quarter the size.
It is not just a hypothetical situation. This has happened multiple times in real lottery draws.
A Case In Point
South Africa runs a game similar to Powerball. On December 1, 2020, the numbers 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and powerball 10 were drawn with a jackpot of $7.5 million US. First off, it is rare to have such consecutive numbers to be drawn. But more importantly, there were 20 tickets with those numbers.
The prize had to be split 20 ways with each winner receiving $375,000. Now $375,000 is still a nice chunk of cash, but when you purchased the ticket with a grand prize listed as $7.5 million, I would imagine there would be still some disappointment once you find out you did not have the solo winning ticket.
The odds of winning the lottery are already astronomically small - but losing a portion of your prize due to duplicates is something you can control.
Why Duplicate Lottery Numbers Are a Real Problem
Most people don't consider that someone else might be playing the same numbers. But the truth is, patterns in human behaviour make certain combinations far more popular than others.
Some of the most commonly played numbers come from:
- Birthdays and anniversaries - restricting picks to numbers between 1 and 31
- Simple sequences - like 1,2,3,4,5,6 which are surprisingly poplular.
- Lucky numbers - such a 7,11, or repeating digits like 5, 15, 25
Because of this, certain combinations are played by thousands of people each draw. If one of these combinations hits, the prize pool is split - possibly so many ways that the payout becomes barely more than a typical secondary prize.
Birthdays and Anniversaries
Let us focus on the use of birthdays and anniversaries as lottery numbers.
In our article, No Duplicate Lottery Numbers, we discussed in detail the Birthday Paradox as it applies to lotteries.
Assuming a random distibution of lottery numbers, a lottery with roughly 1 in 14 million odds of winning, one would start to see duplicates after 4404 plays.
But 4404 is with random distribution.
Of the thousands of players out there that may use birthdays as part of the number sequence, there would be duplicates quite a bit sooner.
From just choosing 3 birthdays or anniversaries in MM / DD format, there would be only 71498 unique combinations, with the math being (12 x 31 x 12 x 31 x 12 x 31) / (6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1).
With 71498 unique combinations, and using the math from the birthday paradox problem, duplicates would start to appear in as little as 316 plays.
Avoiding Duplicates: Smart Lottery Play
You don't have to be a mathematician to reduce your risk of shared numbers. Here are some simple strategies:
- Avoid calendar dates: Picking numbers above 31 dramatically lowers the chances other have selected the same combination.
- Do Not Play Patterns: Sequences, diagonals or "pretty" number arrangements on a ticket are often shared.
- Random is good - but unique is better: Quick picks are random but not guaranteed to be uncommon.
- Use Chosennumbers.com Selections: Chosennumbers.com is designed to help players avoid duplicates. Less duplicates means better chances of winning because more unique sequences are played.
Conclusion
As a collective player of chosennumbers.com selections, you will increase your odds at winning because you are playing the true odds of the lottery - without any duplicates from our pools. The added benefit is you will not have to share the prize with any other chosennumbers.com player because your selection will be unique from our pools.